When you add it up, Cabrera's projection got you 2. We can compare that number to that of every other player in the league, e.
Now we have a basis for our cheat sheet, i. To generate dollar values for an auction, there are a couple further steps. You'll probably end up with a result like 3. Then you multiply each player's score by 3.
Volatility — We discussed this earlier, and of course, it applies here. Carlos Correa 's projection is worth roughly the same as Anthony Rizzo 's this year, but Rizzo is probably the safer bet to live up to it, given his longer track record. So while Correa is the superior talent with an off-the-charts ceiling, early in your draft with your most expensive investment , you might opt for stability over upside. I happen to believe in Correa, but he's surely a volatile pick in the first round. On the lower end of the pool, the consideration is just the opposite.
A player might even have a negative dollar value taking into account his lack of prospective playing time, but his 90thth percentile seasons are so valuable you spend several dollars to acquire him. Translating Performance into Value without Projected Stats — Having said all this and done all the math, I generally don't rely on projections to evaluate players.
I do the research and aggregate the disparate factors into a slot on my cheat sheet. Having done enough auctions and drafts, I have a pretty good idea of what different stat lines are worth without crunching the numbers for each one, and I also know that each statline is based on a fictional rendering of the season and is usually not much more scientific than my placement of a player in a cheat-sheet slot. Moreover, I'm not wedded to my cheat sheet order when the auction or draft starts — I might take my No.
And even if you were to automate those factors — park effects for gap-hitting lefties that are , and score a 65 on the power scale, adjust it for a player's schedule, his historical comps for age-related career arc, you're making a lot of choices on the inputs that are imprecise. And even to the extent your model gained precision over time and backtested its results, there's no guarantee your conscious aggregation of the factors that comprise value will be better than the unconscious snap assessment of an experienced and open-minded evaluator — at least not without the conditions of baseball remaining static while you collect a larger sample of data over the next couple decades.
But I'm open to being proved wrong on this point. The bottom line — there's no substitute for gathering all the material facts you can find about a player, but how you translate those to a dollar value or cheat sheet is up to you. If you prefer to have the discipline of a cheat sheet based on projected stats, it's important to compare those stats to the replacement-value baseline and then to see what those results are worth based on their prospective categorical impact.
A good way to measure that is by seeing how many standard deviations they are above the baseline. Next up, we'll talk about the actual building of your team. Assuming you've read the other sections above, you know the player pool, have a good idea of what each player's prospective numbers are worth and have a good grasp of your league parameters.
What's left is to execute on that understanding in your snake draft or auction. The strategy for the first rounds of every draft depends somewhat on where you're slotted. Subjective Rankings vs. Average Draft Position ADP — You're going to have opinions on particular players, some of which are in line with market value, and some which are not. If the goal is to get the best players for their draft slots, then your opinion is the numerator who you think the best players are while market value is the denominator what those players cost.
As such, you need not only to have a good grasp of what players will do, but also what their going rate is. My philosophy in a draft as opposed to an auction is to be aggressive. Take the players you think are best in a given round, so long as you're pretty sure they won't come back to you in a subsequent one. Don't worry about getting the player with the highest ADP for its own sake. ADP is useful only insofar as it tells you when you can wait until the next round on a player.
The only way you can "reach" for a player, i. Otherwise, always take the player you expect to be the best on the board for your team, irrespective of how the market values him. League Depth — The depth of your league, i. In shallower leagues, e. As such, the difference-makers are mostly elite players, and merely productive players are only marginally valuable. In that case, you'll want to aggressively draft players with the maximum possible upside, like Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton , earlier than usual even if their downsides are steep.
You can always find adequate replacements, so there's a smaller penalty if they don't pan out. In deeper mixed leagues, or especially "only" leagues, the equation changes dramatically. The waiver wire is thinner, and blandly productive players like Hunter Pence and Adrian Gonzalez are actually significant upgrades from what's freely available. In that case, you should focus more on a player's floor than his ceiling - at least until you get into the later rounds. If a player doesn't pan out, he is not easily replaced, and missing on middle-round picks is more costly.
First Round — The first round sets the tone for your draft, largely determining the base of your categorical and positional strengths and weaknesses. Each slot is different, but for the sake of simplicity, let's divide it into early, middle and late positions.
This could be slots or even depending on the depth of the elite player pool. In early position, my preference is largely to ignore position scarcity and get a player who will deliver you massive stats in four — or preferably five — categories - even if that player is a pitcher. Wherever one falls on the positional scarcity question generally, I especially don't think it's a good idea to worry about it early in the first round where the per-pick drop-off in value is greatest. If you're going to draft a shortstop in the first three picks, it better be one like Hanley Ramirez circa where his projected stats merit the selection apart from the slot he fills on your roster.
Consider the positional scarcity a bonus. This is after the initial drop-off from the consensus top group - picks in some seasons or later as the case may be - where the non-elite first rounders are roughly interchangeable. My feelings are more or less the same as in early position, but you won't get quite as much across-the-board production. You typically want a rock solid 3. This is usually the last picks of the first round. You'll usually have the choice of an upside player with less experience Carlos Correa , a more modest five category producer Andrew McCutchen , a superstar coming off a down or injury-marred year Miguel Cabrera or another top pitcher Max Scherzer.
Of course, where you'd be willing to take a pitcher will change depending upon the era and the degree to which a pitcher is an outlier — in the early 's, for example, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez were perennial top-five picks and well worth it, and Kershaw certainly earned his early draft slot the last few years. I don't have a problem with any of these choices.
Playing it safe with McCutchen , for example, isn't my style, but there's a case to be made that you shouldn't gamble on a pick where you have the most to lose. I'd rather take a player on the rise late in the first round like Correa or Mookie Betts where there could be another level than a reliable one at his late peak.
And taking a pitcher can work, but you might have to forgo subsequent pitching bargains as you catch up on hitting if the entire league — as many do — devalues pitching. Rounds — Some people like to get 70 homers and 70 steals in the first three rounds, while others like to get two hitters and one elite pitcher.
Still others try to shore up scarce positions and fill in later with more plentiful outfield and pitching options. I subscribe to none of these rules, preferring to go best available player for three rounds, no matter what that looks like. To me, Rounds are simply about maximum stat gathering, and shoring up weaknesses is something you do later in the draft and during the regular season via waiver wire and trades.
Many leagues force you to draft your entire starting roster before you can take a reserve. In cases like this, you'll want to maintain as much roster flexibility as practicable.
That means if you have four outfielders by Round 8, you probably don't want to take a fifth OF in Round 9 unless he's the best player available by a decent margin because doing so cuts you off from future OF bargains.
Unless you want to use your utility spot which limits your flexibility further. Likewise, getting two first basemen early cuts you out of potential first and third base bargains later in the draft by filling up your corner slot.
You don't want to take this too far — at some point, you'll necessarily be locked out of certain positions. But all things being equal, it's better to have one 1B and one 3B with your corner open, and one second baseman and one shortstop with your MI open for the maximum ability to capitalize on bargains. Whereas your first few picks are about getting the most overall stats, the middle rounds are about balancing out your categorical strengths and weaknesses. In a no-trade format like the NFBC , this is even more important as you can't easily convert a surplus into value later in the year.
In a trading league - so long as people are reasonable - you can come out of your draft with four closers or nine starters or a team with tons of power and too little speed. By season's end, you'll want balance as you don't get extra credit for margin of victory across the categories, but it doesn't matter when you get your numbers.
If you have nine starting pitchers and accumulate huge surpluses in wins and strikeouts by July, you can trade for five closers and get all of your saves in August and September.
Again, it doesn't matter when you get your numbers, only that you get them at some point. Just keep in mind there's not always a perfect trade fit for your team, so you'll often have to pay a premium to re-align the categories later in the year.
Positional Scarcity — Jeff Erickson and I discussed this topic in detail two years ago:. There are three types of players that are scarce one can make an argument for third base and even outfield where you need five of them, but both are more marginal these days :. Because you typically need one second baseman, one shortstop and one middle infielder, and second base and shortstop are comparably scarce, plan to draft 1. For example, in a team league, expect roughly 18 second basemen and 18 shortstops to be drafted, making players the rough baseline at the positions.
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Opportunity cost creates a lens when weighing how a player added to the roster affects the outcome. It also leads to preparing for what needs to happen next and at the expense of what. A strong opening, or a full hand, enables a drafter to control the center of a draft with myriad follow-up moves to strengthen the roster. Then, hit your targets in the end game by taking your players ahead of their ADPs or address a need identified as a threat. Remember to remain a move or two ahead of the room in regards to hitting your marks.
A strong opening, controlling the middle, and focusing in the end game yields success. Use the full-hand approach as a foundation block to a strong fantasy season.
NFL 2h ago. Is Kyler Murray playing Week 10? Fantasy injury update for Panthers-Cardinals. So you could have a Jose Reyes at shortstop instead of a Zack Cozart. In a fantasy lineup, the owner is given several slots to put a starting pitcher in. Pitchers are flexible in that they are not limited to any one position in the rotation. Whereas hitters are confined to just one position in a fantasy lineup and can only be replaced by a hitter of the same position, pitchers have the ability to be easily swapped out by any other starting pitcher.
A late round starter is more likely to help fantasy owners than a late round position player. The beauty of starting pitchers is that there are always a minimum of who hold a spot on a Major League roster. That means that if a starting pitcher were drafted with each pick in a ten-team league, it would take 15 rounds before each starter was picked up.
Similarly, it would take a mere three rounds to take all the starting first basemen in the league if only first basemen were drafted. You can reach the eighth round and still have a number of quality starters still undrafted.
We're talking about number one and number two type pitchers remaining. Here are some pitchers that could be taken around rounds Sonny Gray Those pitchers are reliable and consistent and have the potential to provide excellent value for a late round draft pick.
On the other hand, taking an ace pitcher in the first few rounds would cost you an early pick that could be better spent on an elite hitter. You could even wait until later rounds and find starters such as Yordano Ventura Are any of those pitchers going to finish the season with numbers better than Clayton Kershaw or Chris Sale? No, but if you can stock your rotation with late round value returners like these pitchers, you'll have a decent shot of killing it with your hitting draft picks while also keeping pace in the pitching categories.
Tune into our Youtube live stream and ask away! Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to Read More. Welcome RotoBallers to Week 10 of the fantasy football season. This week there are four teams on bye, and some more big-time injuries that fantasy football managers have to deal with. Fear not, we are here to help. Below you will find our updated Week 10 PPR fantasy football rankings.
As always, we're here to Welcome to Week 10 RotoBallers. Below are our updated consensus Week 10 Flex rankings for fantasy football. Choosing the right fantasy football Flex option will be an important factor for many teams in a tricky week filled with byes and injuries. Speaking of which, included below some running notes on relevant injuries, player news and Who Should I Start? Who Should I Sit? These are two of the most common questions each week for fantasy football managers, and we're here to help make your fantasy football lineup decisions.
Compare up to four NFL players, and we tell you who to start.
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